Quantifying Chaos: ONDCP Cocaine Production Statistics

The U.S. White House Office of National Drug Control Policy’s (ONDCP) recently released coca/cocaine statistics for Bolivia present confusing results.  The ONDCP reports a 4.28% increase in coca cultivation in Bolivia since 2015 (despite UN reports that coca cultivation has decreased for the fifth year in a row) and a 24.32% surge in cocaine production.

However, they provide little explanation of the methodology used to calculate these figures. Furthermore, the ONDCP  inflate its statistics, and then retroactively change them. The following chart shows varying  ONDCP statistics for the same years on  different dates. For example, the 2011 potential cocaine production figures posted on Saturday, August 27  show a lower figure for 2011 potential cocaine production than what was published in 2012,  with no explanation. This is not the first time AIN has noticed ONDCP retroactive modifications. These repeated retroactive adjustments and lack of a transparent methodology raise questions about the credibility of ONDCP coca and cocaine estimates for Bolivia.

Cocaine Production ONDCP Statistics