Quantifying Chaos: ONDCP Cocaine Production Statistics

The U.S. White House Office of National Drug Control Policy’s (ONDCP) recently released coca/cocaine statistics for Bolivia present confusing results.  The ONDCP reports a 4.28% increase in coca cultivation in Bolivia since 2015 (despite UN reports that coca cultivation has decreased for the fifth year in a row) and a 24.32% surge in cocaine production.

However, they provide little explanation of the methodology used to calculate these figures. Furthermore, the ONDCP  inflate its statistics, and then retroactively change them. The following chart shows varying  ONDCP statistics for the same years on  different dates. For example, the 2011 potential cocaine production figures posted on Saturday, August 27  show a lower figure for 2011 potential cocaine production than what was published in 2012,  with no explanation. This is not the first time AIN has noticed ONDCP retroactive modifications. These repeated retroactive adjustments and lack of a transparent methodology raise questions about the credibility of ONDCP coca and cocaine estimates for Bolivia.

Cocaine Production ONDCP Statistics

Inconsistencies in U.S. Government Potential Cocaine Production Estimates

Saturday evening, the White House Office on National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) published its updated coca and potential cocaine production estimates for the Andes. Not only did these figures diverge from the statistics in the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime 2015 Report, but they also conflict with figures from another U.S. government agency, the U.S. State Department. The International Narcotics Control Strategic Report published in March presented potential cocaine production estimates different from the White House ones, as seen by the following chart.

Both U.S. government agencies have failed to reveal a transparent and thorough methodology for their calculations, raising questions about the credibility of their results.

INCSR vs. ONDCP cocaine

 

Estadisticas de Coca: ONUDD vs. EEUU

La Oficina Nacional de Políticas para el Control de Drogas de los EEUU publicó el Sábado en la noche sus estimaciones para el cultivo de coca en la región Andina de 2015.

La publicación dice: “los Estados Unidos usa métodos variados, incluso imágenes satélites, para calcular su estimación de producción de coca en Bolivia. Tenemos confianza en nuestra metodología.”

No obstante,  la metodología estadounidense es un misterio por la comunidad internacional, y las estadísticas varian entre los calculados por los Estados Unidos y la Oficina Naciones Unidas contra la Droga y el Delito (ONUDD), lo cual cuenta con una metodología detallada y transparente.

Para ver los resultados de los Estados Unidos visita el siguiente sitio:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/ondcp/targeting-cocaine-at-the-source

UNODC vs. ONDCP 2016 coca figures

 

U.S. White House Bolivia Coca Estimates vs. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime Statistics

The U.S. White House Office on National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) published its 2015 estimates for Coca in the Andes this past Saturday evening.

In its report it says, “the United States uses a variety of methods, including satellite imagery, as a basis for its estimate of coca cultivation in Bolivia. We are confident in our methodology.”

Nonetheless, the U.S. methodology remains unknown to the international community, and the figures released vary considerably with United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) statistics, which count on a transparent and thorough methodology.

See the U.S. Statistics for Coca in the Andes here:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/ondcp/targeting-cocaine-at-the-source

UNODC vs. ONDCP 2016 coca figures

Has Morales used MAS’s Congressional Majority to Impose a Partisan Agenda in 2016?

Has Bolivia’s Morales used MAS’s Congressional Majority to impose a Partisan Agenda in 2016?

August 24, 2016

Critics and opposition have long argued that the Morales administration uses its majority in congress to impose legislation, warping the nation’s democracy. On the contrary, during the past year, the Bolivian legislature has ratified international accords, approved bilateral and multilateral loans for infrastructure and declared cultural patrimony. Besides a landmark gender identity law and worrisome agreements with Russia to develop nuclear energy, 2016 laws have been largely apolitical. Unfortunately, MAS representatives have not yet taken action on crucial drug law and judicial reform. On a positive note, nor have they attempted to restrict the press. Here’s a summary of the laws passed in Bolivia since January 1, 2016.[1]

 

Law Date Authorized Description
Law 821 August 16, 2016 Modifies Law 165 on Transportation.
Law 820 August 1, 2016 Modifies Law 2715, declares Huanuni municipality the “tin capital.”
Law 819 July 19, 2016 Authorizes the Hydroelectric Ivirizu Project in Rural Cochabamba.
Law 818 July 19, 2016 Declares Uyuni Cultural and Historical Patrimony.
Law 817 July 19, 2016 Modifies Article 42 of Law 3058 (Hydrocarbons Law) to promote investment in exploration and operation of the hydrocarbons sector.
Law 816 July 15, 2016 Authorizes the construction of a hat-making cultural center in Sucre.
Law 815 July 15, 2016 Authorizes using University of San Andres land for public hospital construction.
Law 814 July 12, 2016 Determines the Inter-Departmental border between Achocalla and Mecapaca in the La Paz Department.
Law 813 July 12, 2016 Creates the “Raqaypampa Indigenous-Campesino” terrirory.
Law 812 June 30, 2016 Modifies Law 2492, Bolivia’s Tax Code with new interest rates.
Law 811 June 16, 2016 Ratifies the Nagoya Protocol on access to genetic resources, just/equal participation in benefits of resources based on Convention on Biological Diversity.
Law 810 June 13, 2016 Modifies Article 126 of Law 025 on the Penal Court Decongestion and Efficiency Law, establishing dates for collective vacations for judicial personnel.
Law 809 June 1, 2016 Declares the San Juan del Oro church as a cultural and historical patrimony from the colonial period.
Law 808 June 1, 2016 Approves the loan 3666/BL-BOL to Bolivia from the Inter-American Development Bank for $100 million USD for Risk and Disaster Management II (Political Reform Support Program)
Law 807 May 21, 2016 Establishes the process to change sex and name information for transsexual and transgender people, establishing the right to gender identity.
Law 806 May 17, 2016 Approves the loan to Bolivia from the Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) for $70 million USD to partially finance the Increased Investment in Water Program (MIAGUA)
Law 805 May 17, 2016 Approves loan to Bolivia from the Inter-American Development Bank for $90 million USD for water, sanitation, and hydraulic resources reform.
Law 804 May 11, 2016 Establishes the right to exercise and recreation. Establishes, organizes and regulates the Plurinational Athletic System
Law 803 May 9, 2016 Modifies Law 247, regulating urban housing property rights.
Law 802 April 25, 2016 Ratifies 90 day tourist entry for MERCOSUR citizens.
Law 801 April 25, 2016 Ratifies the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (ITPGRFA).
Law 800 May 25, 2016 Approves financial contract 5744-BO and 5745-BO from the International Promotion Association for the amount of 42,100,000 SDR to finance traffic management capacity building.
Law 799 May 25, 2016 Approves loan agreement 8552-BO and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development for $165,950,000 USD to finance traffic management capacity building.
Law 798 April 25,2016 Modifies Law 252, stipulating one day paid leave for pap smears, mammograms, prostate exams and colonoscopies for government employees over 18.
Law 797 April 6, 2016 Approves loan from the Inter-American Development Bank for $178,570,000 USD to finance, develop and manage basic road infrastructure, part II.
Law 796 April 6, 2016 Ratifies the Territorial Agreement between Bolivia and Argentina on the construction of the bridge in the border pass Salvador Mazza-Yacuiba
Law 795 April 6, 2016 Approves agreement between Bolivia and French Development Agency for amount of 60,000,000 Euros for partial financing of Construction Project for Solar Photovoltaic Plant
Law 794 April 6, 2016 Establishes borders between La Paz and Oruru Departments
Law 793 March 28, 2016 Approves modification of the hydrocarbon contract in the Ipati lease.
Law 792 March 28, 2016 Modifies the operational contract for the Aquio hydrocarbons lease.
Law 791 March 28, 2016 Ratifies agreement with Argentina to prevent and investigate human trafficking and the protection of its victims.
Law 790 March 28, 2016 Approves agreement with the International Fund for Agricultural Development for 12,870,000 SDR to strengthen the altiplano camelid complex.
Law 789 March 28, 2016 Approves loan between Bolivia and Debelopment Bank of Latin America (CAF) for $172,000,000 USD to finance the construction of the San Borja-San Ignacio de Moxos highway
Law 788 March 28, 2016 Approves agreement with Russia for the construction of a nuclear technology research and development plant.
Law 787 March 28, 2016 Ratifies agreement with the Russian Federation for peaceful nuclear energy use.
Law 786 March 9, 2016 Approves the Economic and Social Development Plan 2016-2020
Law 785 March 6, 2016 Approves loan 3599 BL-BO to Bolivia from the International Development Bank for $62 million USD to finance/execute Multipurpose Potable Water and Irrigation Program for Batalla, Pucarani and El Alto municipalities.
Law 784 February 18, 2016 Approves loan from Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) for $86,150,000 USD to partially fund construction of the Santa Cruz-Warnes Highway.
Law 783 February 18, 2016 Approves the transfer of a public building to the Factory Workers National Confederation, with a small percentage to Graphic Workers Union.
Law 782 February 18, 2016 Establishes May 18 as Factory Worker’s Day.
Law 781 February 11, 2016 Declares the construction of the Santa Cruz International highway a national priority.
Law 780 January 24, 2016 Declares the music and dance of Pinkillada as a Cultural Patrimony.
Law 779 January 21, 2016 Limits bureaucracy and streamlines procedures for economic enterprises.
Law 778 January 21, 2016 Ratifies Hague Convention on Civil Aspects of Child Abduction.
Law 777 January 21, 2016 Establishes long-term strategic Planning System for State development initiatives (SPIE).
Law 776 January 21, 2016 Approves loan from the Inter-American Development Bank for $62 million USD to finance “Direct Support for Rural Agro Initiatives”
Law 775 January 8, 2016 Promotion of healthy eating habits
Law 774 January 4, 2016 Promotion of grape, Singani, and Bolivian wine

Coming Soon: an analysis of Morales’s executive decrees in 2016.

[1] Visit the following links to compare the laws passed in 2016 with previous years:

http://www.diputados.bo/index.php/leyes/leyes-promulgadas

http://senado.gob.bo/legislativa/leyes-aprobadas