For the most up-to-date information see the National Electoral Court’s frequently updated website [http://www.cne.org.bo/].

Potential prefectural elections and related problems

Although three prefects have apparently lost their posts, it is unclear how quickly new prefectural elections will occur.  The recall referendum law states that defeated officials are supposed to leave office immediately, and that President Morales has the right to name interim replacements.  However, the law contains a gray area about the timelines for new elections.  In order to avoid unnecessary friction, hopefully the Morales administration will set the process in motion as soon as possible, as the opposition has claimed this law gives the ruling party an unfair power advantage. 

The outcome of elections to replace defeated prefects is unclear.  In La Paz and Cochabamba, MAS has the potential to win, but the outcome will depend on the candidates running.  In Oruro, MAS will likely win.  In general, Orurenos support MAS, but were dissatisfied with Luis Aguilar’s performance.  Cochabamba is perhaps the most divided department, compromised of MAS and opposition supporters.  MAS is considering several middle-ground candidates in order to satisfy a wider margin of voters and avoid further conflicts.   The three defeated Prefects are allowed to run again, but their reelection appears unlikely.  For example, Reyes Villa’s popularity eroded as a result of concerted efforts to block  the referendum and MAS initiatives.  If he had focused on his previous success in effectively carrying out public works projects he might have fared better in this election, but it is probably too late for him to regain ground.   

In addition, conflicts leading up to the referendum over the signing of a new pension law have been temporarily resolved.  The main Bolivian labor union, the COB, and the executive branch have agreed on a 45 day truce and will re-open negotiations.  Protests and roadblocks are unlikely in the coming months, at least over this issue, as government concessions have, at least temporarily, satisfied the COB and other groups who support changing the pension law.

Regional results

As expected, MAS has initially received a large number of “Yes” votes in highland areas, and “No” votes in lowland areas.  An interesting exception is the Pando Department, where MAS currently enjoys a slight majority of “Yes” votes.  “Yes” votes will likely increase across the country as rural votes are tabulated.  Similarly, polls show strong support for opposition prefects in Santa Cruz, Pando, Tarija, y Beni, but may decrease somewhat as rural votes are counted.

Despite claims by opposition leaders, international observers did not report any significant incidents involving voter fraud or corruption. Manfred Reyes and others denounced irregularities among voter registration lists – a common occurrence in Bolivia, these are more as a result of disorganization and bureaucracy rather than an overt attempt at cheating the system.  

Political panorama largely unchanged

Overall, it is unlikely that the political climate will change drastically due to the recall referendum results.  As expected, opposition support has strengthened in lowland areas.  The country is clearly regionally divided, but MAS could help calm some of these tensions by holding prefectural elections quickly and with strict observation. The opposition could also help ease tensions by conceding the MAS victory and dropping unfounded claims of fraud.

Official observers from the Organization of American States (OAS) are asking President Morales and the winning prefects to open up dialogue.  Both MAS and the opposition prefects have proven their popular support, and have nothing to fear by attempting to compromise, instead of continuing to create more division.  Morales has said he will prioritize trying to make the new constitution more compatible with autonomy statutes.  The potential to forge a new system for Bolivia is there, if both sides can stop useless name-calling and complaints.  As Eduardo Stein, head of OAS observations, said, “The slate is clean, now the problems must be solved and we have to create the conditions to fix the existing dynamic.” ¹

Political disagreement is nothing new in Bolivia, and hopefully the recall referendum can create the security necessary for each side to begin to make concessions, instead of the arrogance to dig in their heels and exacerbate existing polarization.

*For more background information see the AIN-WOLA joint memo “Bolivia’s Recall Referendum: Setting the Stage for Resumed Political Conflict” [http://ain-bolivia.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=130&Itemid=32]

^{1. “Observadores piden diálogo a Morales y opositores.” Los Tiempos. August 11, 2008}