Saturday, September 19 – Sunday, September 20

• By the end of last week, Bolivian television networks released footage of the killings in the Pando region on September 11. Although the images are a bit unclear, several groups of people flee to a river, ostensibly to escape the gunfire clearly audible in the background.  It is hard to evaluate whether the splashes seen in the water are caused by the victims, or by gunfire breaking the surface. In spots on Bolivian National Television, a voice asks “Can you imagine fleeing for your life like this?” and, “Imagine being hunted like an animal.”  The narrator states that the images depict paramilitary groups shooting at indigenous people. Additional commentary accuses the suspended Prefect of Pando, Leopoldo Fernandez, of ordering the confrontation between these hired guns and pro-MAS indigenous groups. To view an online version of the same video, please refer to the following link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHXJgsD04-g&feature=related. 

•  In Cochabamba, representatives of social movements decided to resume blockades on the roads to Santa Cruz until the Media Luna leaders sign an agreement in the discussions between the government and opposition.

• General discourse about negotiations over the weekend prompted speculation that opposition leaders intentionally postponed signing an agreement. President Morales offered greater autonomy measures and the negotiations to modify in the proposed Constitution draft to modify possible contradictions if the opposition leaders would sign an agreement.

Monday, September 21

• Carlos Romero, Rural and Agricultural Development Minister, urged the opposition to come to an agreement quickly to ensure an end to the conflict. He also insisted that the lowland leaders clearly define their demand for "full autonomy," the term they have consistently used.

• Chilean President Michelle Bachelet called for another UNASUR meeting regarding the situation in Bolivia on September 24 in New York, in conjunction with the start of a United Nations general session. All participating UNASUR presidents were set to attend, except Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who declined the invitation.

• Bolivian Vice Minister of Justice Wilfredo Chavez asked that pro-MAS protesters be allowed to enter Santa Cruz peacefully. He called for increased gun control in the city to avoid violent confrontations. One account suggested that there may have been 20 thousand campesinos participating in the march, although this is probably an exaggerated figure.

• The government openly rebuked Santa Cruz Civic Committee leader Branko Marinkovic for his statements criticizing the accord that the government is trying to reach. He criticized Morales for wanting to take a “signed piece of paper” to show the UN that there had been progress in resolving from recent conflicts. The government responded by censuring Marinkovic for overstepping the boundaries of his post.

• Bolivian Drug Czar Felipe Cáceres announced that he will travel to Russia in late October to negotiate funding for drug control efforts. He also plans to meet with representatives from Spain, Portugal, Germany and Belgium to seek additional support, as potential alternatives to U.S.  drug control assistance.

Tuesday, September 22

• The Bolivian ambassador to the European Union asked its General Assembly for greater support for the Morales government. This gesture seems to indicate that the stalemate between the government and the opposition leaders is causing the MAS government to look for outside influence to tip the scale in their favor.

• The procession of thousands of campesinos halted their march toward Santa Cruz. The group planned to reach downtown Santa Cruz on the next day. But social movement leaders postponed further protest until September 25 so they wouldn’t give opposition leaders excuses to leave the diplomatic discussions with the central government. They also wanted opposition leaders to sign an agreement to guarantee approval of the constitutional referendum at least until October 15. If they refused to sign this by September 24, the groups threatened to resume pressure on Santa Cruz.

• One press account claimed that President Morales proposed that the campesino groups put their march on hold as a condition for the opposition leaders to sign an agreement. It is ultimately unclear on how the decision was made or which announcement came first. However, there were supposedly some important advances made in the debates between the government and Media Luna leaders on Tuesday. The discussion of IDH distribution came to a preliminary agreement, and leaders were waiting to hear a related analysis on Wednesday regarding the sustainability of the elderly pension. Supposedly advances were also made in discussions about autonomy and the proposed Constitution, although this topic was held up by debate regarding the different nuances and definitions of autonomy.

• Evo Morales made controversial statements at the U.N. General Assembly, and reiterated his emphatic criticisms of the Bush administration. "President Bush sent me a letter that said, I quote, that if I am not a friend, I am an enemy," ¹  Morales said. "I am a friend of the American people; I don't care if I am a friend of the president." ²

Wednesday, September 24

• UNASUR leaders met in New York at the United Nations. President Bachelet of Chile announced that the group had received a letter of support from the European Union expressing its solidarity in the effort to maintain democracy in Bolivia. Bachelet reaffirmed UNASUR’s mission to carry out the points put forth in their September 15 declaration regarding the Bolivian conflict.

• President Morales’ efforts to improve environmental conditions and basic rights were recognized by the President of the U.N. General Assembly, Miguel D’Escotto of Nicaragua. D’Escotto also expressed support for Morales’ remarks made at the United Nations on Wednesday. Among other issues, Morales stated his opinion that diplomatic relations should be between governments, and implied that former Ambassador Goldberg should not have met with opposition leaders.

• The Bolivian Permanent Human Rights Assembly (APDHB) on Wednesday released a report on the September 11 killings in Pando.  The report asserts that the massacre of unarmed campesinos led to the death of 18 people, 15 detained, over 30 injured, and approximately 100 “disappeared.” The report also stated that these shootings were carried out by Pando Prefectural employees and hired hit-men from Brazil, Bolivia and Peru against civilians armed only with sticks, knives and broken glass.  The Bolivian Congressional Commission continued its investigation, but denounced threatening calls and text messages to some of its members. An UNASUR investigative commission planned a visit beginning on October 1.

Thursday, September 25

• On Thursday, opposition leaders and MAS representatives decided to take a recess in their dialogue until Monday, September 29. They were making little progress in discussions about distribution of IDH (Direct Hydrocarbons Tax) revenues, autonomy, and the constitutional referendum. One MAS official commented that the persistent delays in the negotiations resulted from the opposition proposing a compromise, the group debating until the point of an agreement, and then the opposition proposing new changes that set the process back at square one. “This is not taking the process seriously, it’s irresponsible and it’s vague. They [opposition] don’t want an agreement, instead they delaying the dialogue to the point of exhaustion,” ³  said Gustavo Torrico, a MAS representative.

• According to Luis Alberto Arce, the Minister of Economic Affairs, negotiators agreed that that the Renta Dignidad, or elderly pension, will continue to be funded by IDH revenues. New proposals put forth by the government and opposition leaders have instead focused on how to redistribute the remaining IDH monies. The Morales administration advocates a plan designed to significantly increase the prefectures’ revenues starting between 2011 and 2015, but opposition leaders demand more immediate increases. “They [opposition] have not accepted our proposal that would benefit the prefectures in the short and long term [. . .] They are only worried about their own elected terms,” ⁴  Arce stated. However, it remains unclear exactly how the government’s proposal would carry out these increased returns to the departmental governments, or what provisions would be put in place to guarantee this initiative would continue in the event of administration turnover.

Friday, September 26

• President Bush requested that the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) be suspended in Bolivia. This trade preference agreement has allowed certain Bolivian products to be imported duty-free to the U.S. The Bush Administration Trade Representative, Susan Schwab, stated, "The Morales administration's recent actions related to narcotics cooperation are not those of a partner and are not consistent with the rules of these programs." ⁵ Supposedly the rejection of USAID alternative development projects from the coca-growing Chapare region of Bolivia, as well as the removal of the DEA from this same zone, factored into the President’s decision to discontinue the trade agreement. Bolivian Chancellor David Choquehuanca asserted that Bush’s decision constituted “a new aggression against the Bolivian democracy and fight against drug trafficking.” ⁶  Both Bush administration decisions (suspension of ATPDEA and antinarcotics “decertification”) appear to be retribution for the expulsion of Ambassador Goldberg.

Saturday, September 27 – Sunday, September 28

• On Sunday the General Secretary of the Organization of American States (OEA), Jose Miguel Insulza, published a press release stating his profound disappointment with the decision of President Bush to initiate the suspension of the ATPDEA trade agreement. “The said suspension will have a grave effect on many small Bolivian industries that survive on the exportation of their products to the U.S., and could leave more than 50,000 Bolivian workers and their families without employment […] We hope to intervene positively to so that this measure is not carried out,” ⁷ Insulza said.

Monday, September 29

• The U.S. House of Representatives voted on Monday that Andean trade preferences, including Bolivia’s, should be extended under ATPDEA agreements, despite President Bush’s decision on Friday to suspend the Act. If the Senate agrees with this decision, Bolivia’s trade preferences may be renewed under the new administration in January 2009. As it stands now, ATPDEA trade will probably end for Bolivia effective November 1, 2008. The Senate is slated to vote on this issue in the near future.

• Campesino groups decided to surround congress instead of going to Santa Cruz.

• As a part of the President's petition to suspend ATPDEA trade preferences, the U.S. Trade Representative is expected to publish notice of President Bush’s proposal. This begins a process to seek public response, culminating in a hearing on on October 23. The Trade Representative’s announcement of this public hearing repeated President Bush’s reasons for no longer recognizing Bolivia as a “beneficiary country,” citing the country's alleged “failure to meet the programs’ counternarcotics cooperation criteria.” ⁸

  ¹ http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/25/unitednations.wallstreet
  ² http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/25/unitednations.wallstreet
  ³ http://abi.bo/index.php?i=noticias_texto&j=20080925183454lx
  ⁴ http://www.la-razon.com/versiones/20080926_006407/nota_249_678465.htm
  ⁵ http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE48P8SD20080926
  ⁶ http://abi.bo/index.php?i=noticias_texto&j=20080926215623lx
  ⁷ http://www.oas.org/OASpage/press_releases/press_release.asp?sCodigo=C-367/08
  ⁸ http://www.ustr.gov/Document_Library/Recent_News/Section_Index.html