Last October, Bolivia’s national elections convulsed the country as fraud allegations triggered massive protests, leading to the ouster of President Evo Morales, the installation of Jeanine Áñez as interim president, and the nullification of the October 2019 general elections. Áñez’s tenure has been marked by repression of political opponents and the failure to respond adequately to the devastating health and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
After multiple postponements prompted by the pandemic, Bolivians will return to the polls on October 18 to elect a new president and vice president as well as a new national legislature. A second round of voting would take place on November 29 if none of the presidential candidates wins outright in the first round—which would require topping 50 percent of valid votes or garnering at least 40 percent the vote with a 10-point advantage over the closest competitor. Surveys indicate that Luis Arce, the presidential candidate of Morales’ Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party is the front runner, followed by Carlos Mesa of Comunidad Ciudadana.
Achieving fair, inclusive and transparent elections will be crucial for Bolivia to transcend its political crisis: restoring democratic governance, establishing a modicum of social peace, and securing justice for victims of human rights violations. But even with the legitimacy conferred by credible elections, Bolivia’s new executive and legislative leaders will face daunting challenges in a fiercely polarized country wracked by COVID-19 and hobbled by endemically weak institutions.